2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis

In March and April 2021, Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to begin massing thousands of personnel and equipment near its border with Ukraine and in Crimea, representing the largest mobilization since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This precipitated an international crisis due to concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armour, missiles, and heavy weaponry. The troops were partially withdrawn by June 2021, but the crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides by December. Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials from November 2021 to 20 February 2022 repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.

The crisis is related to the ongoing (2014–present) War in Donbas, which is in turn part of the Russo-Ukrainian War. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft treaties that contained requests for what it referred to as “security guarantees”, including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as a reduction in NATO troops and materiel stationed in Eastern Europe, and threatened unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. NATO has rejected these requests, and the United States warned Russia of “swift and severe” economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine. The crisis was described by many commentators as one of the most intense in Europe since the Cold War.

On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognized the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, as independent states, and deployed troops to Donbas, in a move interpreted as Russia’s effective withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol. The breakaway republics were recognized in the boundaries of their respective Ukrainian oblasts, which extend far beyond the line of contact. On 22 February, Putin said that the Minsk agreements were no longer valid. On the same day, the Federation Council unanimously authorised the use of military force in the territories.

On the morning of 24 February, Putin announced that Russia was initiating a “special military operation” in the Donbas, and launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine.

Background

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to abandon its nuclear arsenal and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on the condition that Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States would issue an assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. Five years later, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, where it “reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve”.

Despite being a recognized independent country since 1991, as a former USSR constituent republic, Ukraine had been perceived by the leadership of Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. In 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke out against Ukraine’s membership in NATO. In 2009, Romanian analyst Iulian Chifu and his co-authors opined that in regard to Ukraine, Russia has pursued an updated version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact’s member states prior to the collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence during the late-1980s and early-1990s. This view is built upon the premise that Russia’s actions to placate the West in the early 1990s should have been met with reciprocity from the West, without NATO expansion along Russia’s border.

Following weeks of protests as part of the Euromaidan movement (2013–2014), pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition on 21 February 2014 signed a settlement agreement that called for an early election. The following day, Yanukovych fled from Kyiv ahead of an impeachment vote that stripped him of his powers as president. Leaders of the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych, causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. The unrest was followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the War in Donbas, which started in April 2014 with the creation of the Russia-backed quasi-states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy, “which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO.” On 24 March 2021, Zelenskyy signed the Decree No. 117/2021 approving the “strategy of de-occupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.”

In July 2021, Putin published an essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, in which he re-affirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were “one people”. American historian Timothy Snyder described Putin’s ideas as imperialism. British journalist Edward Lucas described it as historical revisionism. Other observers have noted that the Russian leadership has a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.

Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting to restore the Russian Empire/Soviet Union and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.

Initial tensions (March–April 2021)

First Russian military buildup

According to Time‘s analysis published in early February 2022, Russia’s military buildup along the Russo-Ukrainian border in 2021 originated from an announcement by the Russian Defence Ministry on 21 February regarding the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border for “large-scale exercises”. The announcement was made following the Ukrainian government’s crackdown earlier that month on Viktor Medvedchuk, a leading pro-Russian Ukrainian opposition politician and tycoon with close personal ties to Vladimir Putin.

On 3 March 2021, according to Suspilne, separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic reported they had been granted permission to use “preemptive fire for destruction” on Ukrainian military positions. On 16 March, the SBGS border patrol in Sumy spotted a Mil Mi-8 helicopter flying from Russia trespassing approximately 50 metres (160 ft) into Ukrainian territory before heading back to Russian airspace. According to the Ukrainian magazine Novoye Vremya, ten days later, Russian troops fired mortars at Ukrainian positions near the village of Shumy in Donbas, killing four Ukrainian servicemen. Russia refused to renew the ceasefire in Donbas on 1 April.

Beginning from 16 March, NATO began a series of military exercises known as Defender Europe 2021. The military exercise, one of the largest NATO-led military exercises in Europe for decades, included near-simultaneous operations across over 30 training areas in 12 countries, involving 28,000 troops from 27 nations. Russia has criticized NATO for holding Defender Europe 2021, and has deployed troops to its western borders for military exercises in response to NATO’s military activities. The deployment has led to Russia having a sizable troop buildup along the Russo-Ukrainian border by mid-April. An estimation by Ukraine placed the deployment at 40,000 Russian forces for Crimea and the eastern portion of the Russo-Ukrainian border. The German government condemned the deployment as a provocation.

On 30 March, Colonel general Ruslan Khomchak, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by the Russian Armed Forces at the outskirts of Ukraine in preparations for the Zapad 2021 exercise . 28 Russian battalion tactical groups were situated along the Russo-Ukrainian border, primarily at Crimea, Rostov, Bryansk, and Voronezh. It was estimated that 60,700 Russian troops have stationed at Crimea and Donbas, with 2,000 military advisors and instructors at eastern-Ukraine. According to Komchak, the buildup, expected to increase to 53 battalion tactical groups, posed “a threat” to the military security of Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Vladimir Putin, disagreed the Ukrainian statements, claiming the military movements “are not of any concern” for neighbouring countries. Instead, the decisions were made to deal on matters of “national security”.

Between late March and early April, significant quantities of weapons and equipment from various regions of Russia, including as far away as Siberia, were transported towards the Russo-Ukrainian border and into Crimea. Unofficial Russian sources, such as the pro-Russian Telegram channel Military Observer, published a video of the flight of a group of Russian Kamov Ka-52 and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters. It was emphasized by the original sources that the flight had allegedly taken place on the Russo-Ukrainian border.

Continued violence and escalation

Russian and pro-Kremlin media made allegations on 3 April accusing a Ukrainian drone attack of causing the death of a child in the Russian-occupied part of Donbas. However, no further details were given surrounding the incident. Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma believed that Ukrainian leaders should be “held responsible for the death”, while proposing to exclude Ukraine from the Council of Europe (CoE). On 5 April, Ukrainian representatives of the Joint Centre of Control and Coordination (JCCC) sent a note to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine regarding pro-Russian intentions to falsify the accusations. The next day, the mission confirmed the death of a child in Russian-occupied Donbas, but failed to establish a link between the purported “Ukrainian drone strike” and the child’s death.

On 6 April, a Ukrainian serviceman was killed as a result of shelling of Ukrainian positions near the town of Nevelske in Donetsk. Another soldier was killed near Stepne by an unknown explosive device. As a result of the shelling, the water pumping station located in the “gray-zone” between the villages of Vasylivka and Kruta Balka at South Donbas was de-energized, causing the suspension of water supplies at over 50 settlements. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the flow of the Northern Crimean Canal, which had supplied 85-percent of Crimea’s water. Crimea’s reservoirs were subsequently depleted and water shortages ensued, with water reportedly only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021. The New York Times has cited senior American officials mentioning securing Crimea’s water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia.

Russia has transferred ships between the Caspian Sea and Black Sea. The transfer had involved several landing craft and artillery boats. Interfax has reported on 8 April that the crews and ships of the Caspian Flotilla will pass the final naval exercises in cooperation with the Black Sea Fleet.

On 10 April, Ukraine invoked Paragraph 16 of the Vienna Document and initiated a meeting in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on the surge of Russian troops at regions near the Russo-Ukrainian border and Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s initiative was supported by several countries, but the Russian delegation failed to appear at the meeting and refused to provide explanations.

On 13 April, Ukrainian consul Oleksandr Sosoniuk was detained in Saint Petersburg by the Federal Security Service (FSB), allegedly while “receiving confidential information” during a meeting with a Russian citizen. Sosoniuk was later expelled from Russia. In response, Yevhen Chernikov, a senior Russian diplomat of the Russian embassy in Kyiv, was declared a persona non grata in 19 April in Ukraine and was forced to leave the country within 72 hours.

On 14 April, in a meeting in Crimea, Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia (SCRF) accused Ukrainian special services of trying to organize “terrorist attacks and sabotage” on the peninsula.

On the night between 14 and 15 April, a naval confrontation took place in the Sea of Azov, 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the Kerch Strait, between three Ukrainian Gyurza-M-class artillery boats and six vessels from the Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB. The Ukrainian artillery boats were escorting civilian ships when the incident occurred. It was reported that Ukrainian ships threatened to use airborne weapons to deter provocations from FSB vessels. The incident ended without any casualties.

The following day, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported that Russia had announced the closure of parts of the Black Sea from warships and vessels of other countries until October under the pretext of military exercises. The Ministry has condemned the decision as a “gross violation of the right of navigational freedoms” guaranteed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. According to the convention, Russia must not “obstruct maritime passages of the International strait to ports” in the Sea of Azov.

According to John Kirby, Pentagon Press Secretary, Russia had concentrated more troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border than in 2014. Russia reportedly imposed temporary restrictions on flights over parts of Crimea and the Black Sea from 20 to 24 April 2021, as stated in an international report for pilots.

On 22 April 2021, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu announced a drawdown of military exercises with troops from the 58th and 41st Army, and the 7th, 76th, and 98th Guards Airborne Division returning to their permanent bases by 1 May after inspections in the Southern and Western military districts. Equipment at the Pogonovo training facility were to remain for the annual military exercise with Belarus scheduled in September 2021.

Renewed tensions (October 2021 – February 2022)

On 11 October 2021, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, published an article in Kommersant, in which he argued that Ukraine was a “vassal” of the West and that, therefore, it was pointless for Russia to attempt to hold a dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities, whom he described as “weak”, “ignorant” and “unreliable”. Medvedev concluded that Russia should do nothing in regard to Ukraine and wait until a Ukrainian government comes to power that is genuinely interested in improving relations with Russia, adding “Russia knows how to wait. We are patient people.” The Kremlin later specified that Medvedev’s article “runs in unison” with Russia’s view of the current Ukrainian government.

In November 2021, the Russian Defence Ministry described the deployment of the US warships to the Black Sea as a “threat to regional security and strategic stability.” The ministry said in a statement, “The real goal behind the US activities in the Black Sea region is exploring the theater of operations in case Kyiv attempts to settle the conflict in the southeast by force.”

Second Russian military buildup

Senior officials of the US Department of Defense reported on 5 May 2021 that Russia had only withdrawn a few thousand troops since the previous military buildup. Despite withdrawals of several Russian units back to their native barracks, vehicles and equipment were not withdrawn, leading to fears that a re-deployment might occur. Senior US Defense Department officials in early May estimated over 80,000 Russian troops still remained at the Russo-Ukrainian border.

In early November 2021, reports of Russian military buildups prompted American officials to warn its European allies that Russia could be considering a potential invasion of Ukraine, while a number of experts and commentators believed that Putin was seeking a stronger hand for further negotiations with the West. The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR MOU) estimated that the figure had risen to 90,000 by 2 November, composing of forces from the 8th and 20th Guards, and the 4th and 6th Air and Air Defence Forces Army.

On 13 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia had again amassed 100,000 troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border, higher than an American assessment of approximately 70,000. On the same day, in an interview on Russia-1, Putin denied any possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, labelling the notions as “alarmist”, while simultaneously accusing NATO of undergoing unscheduled naval drills at the Black Sea. 8 days later, the chief of the HUR MOU, Kyrylo Budanov  commented that Russian troop deployment had approached 92,000. Budanov accused Russia of conspiring several protests against COVID-19 vaccination in Kyiv to destabilize the country.

Between late-November and early-December 2021, as Russian and Ukrainian officials traded accusations of the one another’s massive troop deployments in region of Donbas, Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba on 25 November admonished Russia against a “new attack on Ukraine”, which he said “would cost dear”, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 21 November called the accusations ” hysteria” that “s being intentionally whipped up” and said that, in their opinion, it was Ukraine who was planning aggressive actions against Donbas.

On 3 December, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleksii Reznikov, spoke of the possibility of a “large-scale escalation” by Russia during the end of January 2022, during a session at the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s national parliament). Reznikov estimated that the Russian military buildup had consisted of 94,300 troops. In early December 2021, an analysis conducted by Janes concluded that major elements of the Russian 41st Army (headquartered at Novosibirsk) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (normally deployed around Moscow) had been re-positioned to the west, reinforcing the Russian 20th and 8th Guards that were already positioned closer to the Russo-Ukrainian border. Additional Russian forces were reported to have moved to Crimea, reinforcing Russian naval and ground units that were already deployed there. American intelligence officials warned that Russia was planning an upcoming major military offensive into Ukraine scheduled to take place in January 2022.

Russia began a slow evacuation of its embassy staff at Kyiv beginning in January 2022. The motives of the evacuation remain unknown and were subjected to multiple speculations. By mid-January, an intelligence assessment produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimated that Russia were in its final stages of completing a military buildup at the Russo-Ukrainian border, amassing 127,000 troops at the region. Among the troops, 106,000 were land forces and the remainder being navals and air forces. Furthermore, there were 35,000 more Russian-backed separatist forces and another 3,000 Russian forces in rebel-held eastern Ukraine. The assessment estimated that Russia had deployed 36 Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems near the border, many stationed within striking distance of Kyiv. The assessment also reported intensified Russian intelligence activity. An analysis conducted by the Atlantic Council in 20 January concluded that Russia had deployed additional critical combat capabilities to the region.

In late-January 2022, major Russian military units were relocated and deployed to Belarus under the auspices of previously planned joint military exercises to be held in February that year. Namely, the headquarters of the Eastern Military District was deployed to Belarus along with combat units drawn from the District’s 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Army, 76th Guards Air Assault Division, 98th Guards Airborne Division and the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. Ukrainian and American officials believed that Russia attempted to use Belarus as a platform for an attack on Ukraine from the north, due to the close proximity of the Belarusian–Ukrainian border with the city of Kyiv.

On 19 January, United States President Joe Biden said his “guess” was that Russia “w move in” to Ukraine but Putin would pay “a serious and dear price” for an invasion and “would regret it”.

On 20 January, Russia announced plans to hold major naval drills later that month that would involve all of its naval fleets containing 140 vessels, 60 planes, 1,000 units of military hardware, and 10,000 soldiers, in the Mediterranean, the northeast Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific, the North Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. On 28 January, Reuters reported that 3 anonymous American officials had revealed that Russia had stockpiled medical supplies. Two of the three officials claimed that the movements were detected in “recent weeks”, adding to fears of conflict. In an interview with The Washington Post in January 2022, Zelenskyy warned that Russian forces could invade and take control of regions in eastern Ukraine. He also argued that an invasion would lead to a large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia. On 5 February, two anonymous US officials reported Russia had assembled 83 battalion tactical groups, estimated to be 70-percent of combat capabilities for a full-scale invasion on Ukraine. It was also predicted that a hypothetical invasion would result in 8,000 to 35,000 military casualties and 25,000 to 50,000 civilian casualties. It was anticipated by the officials that the possible launch window could start on 15 February and persist until the end of March, when extremely cold weather would freeze roads and assist in the movement of mechanized units.

On 8 February, a fleet of six Russian landing ships, namely the Korolev, the Minsk, and Kaliningrad from the Baltic Fleet; and the Petr Morgunov, the Georgiy Pobedonosets, and the Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Northern Fleet, was reported to have sailed to the Black Sea for naval exercises. The fleet arrived at Sevastopol two days after. On 10 February, Russia announced two major military exercises. The first was a naval exercise at the Black Sea, which was protested by Ukraine as it resulted in Russia blocking the naval routes at the Kerch Strait, the Sea of Azov, and the Black Sea; the second involved a joint-military exercise between Belarus and Russia held at regions close to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, involving 30,000 Russian troops and almost all of the Belarusian armed forces. Responding to the latter, Ukraine held separate military exercises of their own, involving 10,000 Ukrainian troops. Both exercises were scheduled for 10 days.

While referring to unspecified intelligence, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, stated an attack could begin at any moment prior to the conclusion of the 2022 Winter Olympics at Beijing on 20 February. Separately, the media published several reports based on acquired US intelligence briefed to several allies with specific references to 16 February as a potential starting date for a ground invasion. Following these announcements, the US ordered most of its diplomatic staff and all military instructors in Ukraine to evacuate. Numerous countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia and Israel also urged their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. The next day, KLM suspended its flights to Ukraine, while other airlines shifted their flight schedules to limit exposure across the country.

On 10 February, the Baltic states invoked provisions of the Vienna Document requesting an explanation from Belarus regarding the unusual military activities. The move was followed by Ukraine a day after, where it too invoked Chapter III (risk reduction) of the Vienna Document, requesting Russia to provide “detailed explanations on military activities in the areas adjacent to the territory of Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied Crimea”. According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, no response had been received from Russian authorities within the required 48-hour deadline. On 13 February, Ukraine requested that an emergency meeting within the OSCE be held within the following 48 hours, at which Russia was expected to provide a response. On 14 February, a telephone conversation was made by Reznikov and his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, where they agreed on mutual confidence-building and transparency measures. These measures included visits by both defence ministers to their respective country’s military exercises (Reznikov to the Russo–Belarusian Allied Resolve 2022 exercise, and Khrenin to the Ukrainian Zametil 2022 exercise). The emergency meeting in the OSCE requested by Ukraine was held on 15 February. However, the Russian delegation to the OSCE was absent from the meeting.

On 14 February, Shoygu said units from Russia’s Southern and Western military districts had begun returning to their barracks following the completion of “exercises” near Ukraine. However, in a press conference held the subsequent day, Biden commented that they could not verify such reports. On 16 February, the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg refuted Russian claims and said that Russia had continued the military buildup. On 17 February, top officials from the US and NATO stated that the threat of an invasion remained, as Russia was still actively looking for a casus belli for an invasion against Ukraine, with attempts being made to conduct a false flag operation. On 18 February, Biden announced that he was convinced that Putin had made a decision to invade Ukraine. On 19 February, two Ukrainian soldiers were killed while another five were wounded by artillery fire from separatists.

On 20 February, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced the continuation of the Allied Resolve 2022 military exercises, under the decision by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko and Putin. According to Khrenin, it was due to the “escalation in military activity along the external borders of the Union State and the deterioration of the situation in Donbas”. On the same day, several news outlets reported that US intelligence assessed that Russian commanders had been given orders to proceed with the invasion.

Alleged Russian subversion attempts

On 26 November 2021, Zelenskyy accused the Russian government and Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov of backing a plan to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Russia subsequently denied the claims. On 10 January 2022, the SBU announced that it had arrested a Russian military intelligence agent who was attempting to recruit operatives to conduct attacks at Odessa. Three days later, Ukraine was struck by a cyberattack that affected the official websites of several Ukrainian government ministries. It was later suspected that Russian hackers might be responsible for the incident.

The HUR MOU accused Russian special services of preparing “provocations” against Russian soldiers stationed at Transnistria, a breakaway unrecognized state internationally considered part of Moldova, to create a casus belli for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration later revealled that the Russian government deployed Russian operatives, trained in urban warfare and explosives, as saboteurs to stage a fabricated attack against Russian proxy separatists at eastern-Ukraine, as a method to provide Russia with another pretext for an invasion. The Russian government denied the claims.

On 22 January, the British government said Russia was preparing a plan to supplant Ukraine’s government via military force and install a pro-Russian puppet administration in the country, potentially led by Yevheniy Murayev, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament. Both Murayev and the Russian government denied the allegations, with the latter blaming NATO member-states “led by the Anglo-Saxons” for the crisis. On 3 February, the US said that Russia was planning to use a fabricated video showing a staged Ukrainian “attack” as a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government denied any plans to orchestrate a pretext for an invasion.

US intelligence sources warned in mid-February that Russia had compiled “lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination” in the event of an invasion. The US Ambassador to the United Nations and Other International Organizations in Geneva, Bathsheba Nell Crocker, wrote to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, saying the US has “credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation”, and that Russia “will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests … from civilian populations”.

Russia’s accusations of genocide in eastern Ukraine

On 9 December 2021, Putin spoke of discrimination against Russian speakers outside Russia, saying: “I have to say that Russophobia is a first step towards genocide. You and I know what is happening in Donbass. It certainly looks very much like genocide.” Russia also condemned the Ukrainian language law. On 15 February 2022, Putin told the press: “What is going on in Donbas is exactly genocide.” Several international organizations, including the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, and the Council of Europe found no evidence supporting the Russian claims. The genocide allegations have been rejected by the European Commission as Russian disinformation.

The US embassy in Ukraine described Russian genocide claims as “reprehensible falsehood”, while the Spokesperson for the US Department of State, Ned Price said the Russian government was making such claims as “an excuse for invading Ukraine”. On 18 February, the Russian Ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov replied to a question about US officials, who doubted the fact of the genocide of Russians in Donbas, by posting a statement on the Embassy’s Facebook page that said: ‘This causes outrage and indignation. … We see here not just double standards of the United States, but quite a primitive and crude cynicism. … The main geopolitical goal of the United States is to push Russia back to the East as far possible. To that end, a policy to force the Russian-speaking population out of their current places of residence is needed. Therefore, Americans prefer not only to ignore the attempts of forced assimilation of Russians in Ukraine, but also strongly condone them with political and military support.”

Ukrainian defences

In preparation of a possible renewed Russian invasion, the Ukrainian Ground Forces announced a meeting in April 2021 regarding territorial defences to strengthen and protect the nation’s borders and critical facilities, and to combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups at southern Ukraine. During the same month, Zelenskyy visited Ukrainian defensive positions at Donbas. According to Russia, Ukraine deployed 125,000 troops to the Donbas conflict zone in December 2021.

The United States estimated in December 2021 that Russia could assemble over 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of Defense, stated that “we have 250,000 official … members of our army. Plus, I said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 (is) not enough to go to Ukraine.” Reznikov claimed that Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late-January 2022.

Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces (the reserve component of the Ground Forces established after the 2014 conflict) recruited additional citizens and trained them in urban guerrilla tactics and firearms use. Such insurgency tactics, as reported by The New York Times, could support a resistance movement if the Russian military is able to overwhelm the Ukrainian military. Andrii Zahorodniuk, former Ukrainian Minister of Defense, wrote in January that in the case of a Russian invasion, the Russian forces would likely destroy “key elements of the country’s military infrastructure” and will be able to “advance deep into Ukrainian territory”, but would face difficulty in securing it. Zahorodniuk further stated, “Russian occupation forces will face highly motivated opponents fighting in familiar surroundings.”

Foreign support

In response to expectations of a renewed invasion following the military buildup of over 100,000 Russian troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border, some of the NATO member nations in January 2022 began providing military aid, including lethal weapons, with the US giving approval to its NATO allies to send anti-armor missiles and other US-made weapons. The first US shipment of some 90 tonnes (200,000 lb) of lethal weapons arrived in Ukraine on 22 January 2022. The US provided FGM-148 Javelin antitank missiles, anti-armor artillery, heavy machine guns, small arms, ammunition, secure radio systems, medical equipment and spare parts. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley threatened US support for an anti-Russian insurgency within Ukraine, similar to the CIA’s assistance to anti-Soviet mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan in the 1980s. According to James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO (2009–2013), “The level of military support” for anti-Russian guerrilla fighters “would make our efforts in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union look puny by comparison.”

In December, the US government approved an additional defense aid of US$200 million to Ukraine. This was an addition to previous aids to Ukraine, making the total defense aid in 2021 worth US$650 million. Deliveries of lethal weapons from the US started the following month and included .50 BMG caliber ammunition, M141 Bunker Defeat Munition (BDM) and Javelin systems. The US also intends to transfer Mil Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine, previously flown by the Afghan Air Force. The Biden administration approved deliveries of American-made FIM-92 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. In January 2022, the Biden administration granted permission to the Baltic nations to transfer American-made equipment to Ukraine. Estonia donated Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, while Latvia and Lithuania provided Stinger air defense systems and associated equipment.

Other NATO members also provided aid to Ukraine. Pre-existing British and Canadian military training programs were bolstered in January 2022. The British deployed additional military trainers and provided light anti-armor defence systems, while the Canadians deployed a small special forces delegation to aid Ukraine. On 17 January, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that Britain had supplied Ukraine with 1,100 short-range anti-tank missiles. On 20 January, Sky News reported that 2,000 short-range anti-tank MBT LAW missiles had been delivered via numerous Royal Air Force C-17 transport aircraft between the UK and Ukraine. On 21 January, the UK Defence Journal reported that there had been an increase in Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft being deployed to monitor Russian forces on the Russo-Ukrainian border.

On 16 January, the Danish government announced they would provide Ukraine with a €22 million (US$24.8 million) defense package. On 21 January, the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wopke Hoekstra, said that the Netherlands was ready to deliver “defensive military support”. He explained that Ukraine had asked the Netherlands for arms assistance on 20 January, and a parliamentary majority supported it.

On 31 January, Poland announced the decision to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons. It intends to provide significant quantities of light ammunition, artillery shells, light mortar systems, reconnaissance drones, and Polish-made Grom surface-to-air missiles.

On 17 February, a tripartite format of cooperation was launched between Poland, Ukraine and the United Kingdom, with the aim to respond to threats to European security and to deepen Ukraine’s relationships with the two other European nations in matters of cyber security, energy security and countering disinformation.

NATO reinforcements

The Dutch and Spanish governments also deployed forces to the region in support of NATO. On 20 January 2022, Spanish Defence Minister, Margarita Robles announced that the Spanish Navy was being deployed to the Black Sea. The patrol vessel Meteoro, acting as a minesweeper, was already en route and the frigate Blas de Lezo departed on 22 January. She also announced that the Spanish government was considering deploying the Spanish Air Force (SAF) to Bulgaria. Four Eurofighters were deployed on 12 February. The Netherlands said it would send two F-35s to Bulgaria as part of NATO’s expanded air surveillance mission.

On 5 February, the first of 2,000 newly deployed US soldiers to Europe arrived in Germany and Poland, as part of the US attempt to bolster NATO’s eastern flank as Russia deploys more forces along Ukraine’s borders.

On 7 February, Johnson said Britain would not “flinch” as he prepared to deploy Royal Marines, RAF aircraft, and Royal Navy warships to eastern Europe.

On 11 February, the US announced additional deployment of 3,000 troops to Poland and sent F-15 jets to Romania.

Escalation and invasion (February 2022 – present)

Alleged clashes between Russia and Ukraine

Fighting in Donbas escalated significantly on 17 February 2022. While the daily number of attacks over the first six weeks of 2022 was 2 to 5, the Ukrainian military reported 60 attacks on 17 February. Russian state media also reported over 20 artillery attacks on separatist positions the same day. For example, the Ukrainian government accused Russian separatists of shelling a kindergarten at Stanytsia Luhanska using artillery, injuring three civilians. The Luhansk People’s Republic said that its forces had been attacked by the Ukrainian government with mortars, grenade launchers and machine gun fire.

The next day, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic ordered mandatory evacuations of civilians from their respective capital cities, although it has been noted that full evacuations would take months to accomplish. Ukrainian media reported a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas as attempts to provoke the Ukrainian army.

On 21 February, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that Ukrainian shelling had destroyed an FSB border facility 150 m from the Russia–Ukraine border in Rostov Oblast. Separately, the press service of the Southern Military District announced that Russian forces had in the morning that day killed a group of five saboteurs near the village of Mityakinskaya, Rostov Oblast, that had penetrated the border from Ukraine in two infantry fighting vehicles, the vehicles having been destroyed. Ukraine denied being involved in both incidents and called them a false flag. Additionally, two Ukrainian soldiers and a civilian were reported killed by shelling in the village of Zaitseve, 30 km north of Donetsk.

Several analysts, including the investigative website Bellingcat, published evidence that many of the claimed attacks, explosions as well as evacuations in Donbas were staged by Russia.

On 21 February, the Luhansk Thermal Power Plant in the Luhansk People’s Republic was shelled from unknown forces. The Ukrainian News Agency states that it was forced to shut down as a result.

Recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics by Russia

On 21 January 2022, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation announced in Pravda that its deputies would introduce a non-binding resolution in the State Duma to ask President Putin to officially recognize the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. The resolution quickly gained the support of the other four major Russian parliamentary parties (United Russia, A Just Russia — For Truth, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and New People) and was adopted by the State Duma on 15 February 2022 in a 351–16 vote, with one abstention.

On 21 February, the leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, respectively Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik, requested that President Putin officially recognize the republics’ independence; both leaders also proposed signing a treaty on friendship and cooperation with Russia, including on military cooperation. Concluding the extraordinary session of the Security Council of Russia held on that day, Putin said that the decision on recognition thereof would be taken that day. The request was endorsed by the minister of defence Sergey Shoygu, while the prime minister Mikhail Mishustin said the government had been laying the groundwork for such move for “many months already”. Later that day, Putin signed decrees on recognition of the republics; additionally, treaties “on friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance” between Russia and the republics were inked.

Prior to the signing ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace, Putin’s address to Russian citizens was made public, in which he stated, among other things, that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia, more precisely, Bolshevik, communist Russia”, and specifically blaming Vladimir Lenin for the separation, adding that admission of Ukraine to NATO was “a foregone conclusion”, that Moscow could not afford to ignore the threat of a nuclear-armed Ukraine, and he demanded that “those who seized and retain power in Kiev … immediately cease hostilities”, or face consequences. With reference to the legally mandated decommunization in Ukraine that had begun in Ukraine in 2015, Putin said: “You want decommunisation? That suits us fine. But don’t stop halfway. We’re ready to show Ukraine what real decommunisation means for Ukraine.” The recognition decision was promptly condemned by the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the president of the European Council Charles Michel in identical statements on Twitter.

International sanctions on Russia

In response to the recognition of the two breakaway republics, Western countries started to roll out sanctions against Russia. On 22 February, UK Prime Minister Johnson announced sanctions on five Russian banks, namely Rossiya Bank, Industrialny Sberegatelny Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank, and Black Sea Bank, and three billionaire associates of Putin, namely Gennady Timchenko, Boris Romanovich Rotenberg, and Igor Rotenberg. German chancellor Scholz announced halting the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. EU foreign ministers blacklisted all members of Duma who voted in favour of the recognition of the breakaway regions, banned EU investors from trading in Russian state bonds, and targeted imports and exports with separatist entities. US president Biden announced sanctions on banks VEB.RF and Promsvyazbank and comprehensive sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt.

The list of countries that has or will impose sanctions include but are not limited to:

•  Australia – Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that it would “begin imposing further sanctions on oligarchs, whose economic weight is of strategic significance to Moscow and over 300 members of the Russian Duma, their parliament.”
•  Japan – Japan said that it would strengthen its sanctions against Russia to also include financial institutions and military equipment exports.
•  New Zealand – New Zealand is prohibiting exports of goods to the Russian military and other related security forces.
•  Singapore – Singapore will block certain Russian banks and financial transactions. It will also control the export of items that could be used as weapons against the people of Ukraine.
•  South Korea – South Korea’s government decided on to tighten export controls by banning shipment strategic items. They will also block some Russian banks from the SWIFT banking system.
•   Switzerland – Switzerland has announced that it will freeze the economic assets of 363 individuals including Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov effective immediately.
•  United Kingdom – Prime Minister Johnson revealed that the UK would employ sanctions to target banks, members of Putin’s closest circle, and wealthy Russians.
•  United States – US’s government has decided to remove a selected number of Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system.

Invasion

On 21 February 2022, following the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, President Putin ordered additional Russian troops into Donbas, in what Russia called a “peacekeeping mission”. Later on the same day, several independent media outlets confirmed that Russian forces were entering Donbas. On 22 February 2022, the United States declared this movement an “invasion”. On the same day, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy ordered reservists called up, while not committing to general mobilization yet.

On 23 February, an unidentified senior U.S. defense official was quoted by news media as saying that “80 percent” of Russian forces assigned and arrayed along Ukraine’s border were ready for battle and that a ground incursion could commence at any moment. On the same day, the Ukrainian parliament approved the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky on the introduction of a state of emergency from 00:00 on 24 February 2022 across the territory of all Ukraine, except Donetsk and Luhansk regions, for a period of 30 days. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recommended that Ukrainian citizens refrain from travel to Russia and those living in Russia leave the country “immediately”.

About 4 a.m. Moscow time on 24 February, President Putin announced the beginning of a “special military operation” in the Donbas region. Shortly after, reports of big explosions came from multiple cities in central and eastern Ukraine, including Kyiv and Kharkiv, while Russian amphibious assault troops landed in Odessa.

Diplomatic negotiations

Between 2 and 3 November 2021, CIA director William Burns met with senior Russian intelligence officials at Moscow to convey to the Kremlin regarding Biden’s concern about the situation on the Russo-Ukrainian border. It was reported by CNN that Burns spoke by phone with Zelenskyy following the meeting at Moscow in a bid to ease Russian and Ukrainian tensions. Simultaneously, a high-ranking US Department of State official was dispatched to Ukraine.

On 15 November, acting German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian expressed concern in a joint communique about “Russian movements of troops and hardware near Ukraine”, calling both sides to adopt and maintain “a posture of restraint”. At the same time, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby confirmed that the United States continues to observe “unusual military activity” by Russia near the Russo-Ukrainian border. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed reports of “Russian military activity” in the area with Le Drian. On 16 November, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the reporters that it’s important NATO “doesn’t increase tensions, but we have to be clear-eyed, we need to be realistic about the challenges we face”. Stoltenberg added that the alliance records an “unusual concentration” of Russian forces, which Russia might be willing to use “to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine”.

In early November 2021, Ukrainian intelligence assessed the information about the transfer of additional Russian troops to the Ukrainian borders to be “an element of psychological pressure.” A week later, the Office of the President of Ukraine acknowledged that Russia was building up “specific groups of troops” near the border. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the French and German governments to prepare for a possible military scenario of Russia’s actions against Ukraine.

Ukraine has intensified diplomatic efforts. On 15 November, Zelenskyy and the head of the European Council (EUCO) Charles Michel discussed “the security situation along the borders of Ukraine.” On the same day, Kuleba held talks on the same issues in Brussels. The new Ukrainian defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, went to Washington D.C., where on 18 November he met with US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. On 16 November, British defence secretary Ben Wallace visited Kyiv.

Israel maintains strong relationship with both Ukraine and Russia, and has sometimes acted as an interlocutor between the two nations. In April 2021, Zelenskyy asked the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to mediate the situation between himself and Putin. Israel raised the idea with Russia, who declined the request. In a meeting at Kyiv in October with Zelenskyy, Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Zelenskyy that the new Israeli government under Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was willing to resume efforts at Ukrainian-Russian mediation. Bennett raised the idea in a meeting with Putin two weeks later at Sochi, but Putin declined.

In late January, the United States was again discussing sanctions with European allies in case of a Russian invasion. Biden said the sanctions would be “swift and severe, including a “game over” strategy of targeting Russian banks, bond markets and the assets of elites close to Putin. Such an approach has also been criticized, and the proposed cut-off of Russian banks from the Visa, Mastercard and SWIFT payment systems was withdrawn. The challenge for US and NATO vis-à-vis Russia is the creation of credible deterrence with a plan for a de-escalatory sequence, including a reduction in inflammatory rhetoric, Russian troop withdrawals from the Russo-Ukrainian border, renewed Donbas peace talks, as well as a temporary halt on military exercises at the Black and Baltic Seas by the US, NATO or Russia.

A Normandy Format meeting was planned between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French senior officials at Paris on 26 January 2022, with a followup phone call between the French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin on 28 January. Ukraine fulfilled Russia’s condition for a meeting at Paris and decided to withdraw a controversial draft law on the reintegration of Crimea and Donbas from the Ukrainian parliament, as it was viewed that the law had contradicted the Minsk peace agreements.

On 7 February, French President Emmanuel Macron met Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with mixed outcomes: Macron said that Putin told him that Russia will not further escalate the crisis; Putin scoffed at assertions that NATO is a “defensive alliance” and warned the Western countries that if Ukraine joined NATO and “decided to take back Crimea using military means, European countries will automatically be in a military conflict with Russia.” Putin promised Macron not to carry out new military initiatives near Ukraine.

NATO–Russia security talks

On 7 December 2021, US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked by videoconference. One of the topics discussed was the crisis over Ukraine, the Russian side issuing a statement that said Putin highlighted the fact that it was “NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to develop Ukrainian territory and increase its potential along borders”; he demanded “reliable, legal guarantees” that would preclude NATO from expanding its territory toward Russia or deploying its strike weapon systems in countries bordering Russia.

On 15 December 2021, Russia formally handed over to the US its two draft treaties on security guarantees whereby the US as well as NATO would, among other things, undertake not to deploy troops in ex-Soviet states that were not NATO members, rule out any further expansion of the Alliance eastward, undertake not to deploy any forces in other countries in addition to that which were deployed as of 27 May 1997, and refrain from conducting any military activity in Ukraine as well as in other states in eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Biden and Putin had a 50-minute phone call on 30 December 2021. According to a White House statement released afterwards, on the call, Biden urged Putin “de-escalate tensions with Ukraine”. According to Putin’s aide, Biden told Putin that the US did not plan to deploy offensive weapon in Ukraine. Biden also warned that if Russia continued aggression against Ukraine, it would lead to “serious costs and consequences” such as the US imposing additional economic sanctions on Russia, increasing US military presence in the eastern members of NATO, and increased assistance to Ukraine. According to Putin’s aide, Putin responded by saying that it would “cause a total severance of relations” between Russia and the US as well as the West at large. The following day, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the question about what Russia expected in response to its “security guarantees” proposals by saying that “we will not allow anyone to drag out our initiatives in endless discussions. If a constructive response does not follow within a reasonable time and the West continues its aggressive course, Russia will be forced to take every necessary action to ensure a strategic balance and to eliminate unacceptable threats to our security.”

On 10 January 2022, the US and Russia held bilateral talks in Geneva, whose purpose had been defined by the two sides as “to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine”. The talks were led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

The Geneva meeting was followed by a meeting of the NATO–Russia Council in Brussels on 12 January that involved delegations from all thirty NATO countries and one from Russia to discuss (according to the official statement issued by NATO), “the situation in and around Ukraine, and the implications for European security”. The Russian MoD statement following the meeting stated that Russia “brought Russian assessments of the current state in the field of Euro-security, and also gave explanations on the military aspects of the Russian draft agreement on security guarantees.” The talks were judged by Russia to be unsuccessful. Following the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that, with respect to Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO, all NATO Allies were “united on the core principle that each and every nation has the right to choose his own path” and “Russia doesn’t have a veto on whether Ukraine can become a NATO member. … at the end of the day, it has to be NATO Allies and Ukraine that decides on membership.”

On 21 January, Lavrov and Blinken met at Geneva. Blinken noted afterwards that the meeting “was not a negotiation but a candid exchange of concerns and ideas”. Following the meeting, Blinken said that the US had made clear to Russia that its renewed invasion would “be met with swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies.”

The US delivered a formal written response to Russia’s security demands on 26 January. The response rejected Moscow’s demand that NATO renounce its promise that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. Commenting on the content of the US response, Blinken said that the document “include concerns of the United States and our allies and partners about Russia’s actions that undermine security, a principled and pragmatic evaluation of the concerns that Russia has raised, and our own proposals for areas where we may be able to find common ground.” On 1 February, Putin said the US response had failed to address Moscow’s “three key demands”, namely the non-expansion of NATO, refusal to deploy offensive weapon systems close to the Russian borders, and bringing back NATO’s military infrastructure to the status quo of 1997. On 17 February, as the risk of Russian invasion of Ukraine was being assessed by the US and NATO as very high, Russia handed a letter to the US ambassador that blamed Washington for having ignored its main security demands.

United Nations Security Council

A UN Security Council meeting was convened on 31 January to discuss the ongoing crisis. Russia tried to block the meeting, but the request was rejected with ten votes for the meeting to go ahead, two against and three abstentions. During the debate, the US and Russia exchanged accusations among themselves. The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, accused Russia of “aggressive behavior”, and posing a “clear threat to international peace and security”. She said Russia had made the “largest military mobilization for decades in Europe”, and was trying “to paint Ukraine and Western countries as the aggressors to fabricate a pretext for attack”. Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, accused the West of “hysterics” and of “whipping up tensions” over Ukraine. He accused the US of “stoking the conflict” and the UNSC meeting was “an attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and Ukraine”. According to him, Ukraine was not abiding by the Minsk Protocols of 2014 and 2015 to end the conflict with the separatists, and Western nations were “pumping Ukraine full of weapons” contrary to the Minsk Protocols. Nebenzya added that Ukraine’s violation of the Minsk Protocols could end in the ‘worst way’.

Ukrainian permanent representative at the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya, said Russia had deployed 112,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders and in Crimea, with 18,000 deployed at sea off Ukraine’s coast. China’s permanent representative, Zhang Jun, said the meeting was counterproductive and “quiet diplomacy, not megaphone diplomacy” was needed.

No resolution was agreed at the meeting.

Later, the 21 February intervention in Donbass was widely condemned by the UN Security Council, and did not receive any support. Kenya’s ambassador, Martin Kimani, compared Putin’s move to colonialism and said “We must complete our recovery from the embers of dead empires in a way that does not plunge us back into new forms of domination and oppression.”

Another UN Security Council meeting was convened on 23–24 February 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine during this UN Security Council emergency meeting aiming to defuse the crisis. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had stated: “Give peace a chance.” Russia invaded while holding the presidency of the UN Security Council for February 2022, and has veto power as one of five permanent members.

International treaties and negotiation structures

On 15 December 2021, Russia proposed documents that it referred to as “draft treaties”, which referred to multiple international agreements, including the Charter for European Security and the NATO–Russia Council (NRC). Responses from NATO and the US in January 2022 referred to NRC, the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the United States–Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue (SSD), the Helsinki Final Act, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Normandy Format and other treaties and forums.

Treaties and negotiation forums hide

Name	Main parties	First signatures or date formed	Legal status	Discussed in	References
Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances	Ukraine, Russia, United States, United Kingdom	1994	Non-binding	Jan 2022 US response to Russia
Charter for European Security	OSCE members	1999	Non-binding	Dec 2021 Russian draft for US–Russia Agreement
NATO–Russia Council (NRC)	NATO, Russia	2002	Informal forum	Dec 2021 Russian draft for Russia–NATO Treaty
Normandy Format	France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine	2014	Informal forum	Jan 2022 US response to Russia
Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine	Ukraine, Russia and OSCE	2014	Informal forum	Jan 2022 US response to Russia
United States–Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue (SSD)	US, Russia	2021	Informal forum	Jan 2022 US response to Russia

Reactions

It has been suggested that this article be merged into Reactions to the 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis. (Discuss) Proposed since February 2022.

This section may be too long and excessively detailed. Please consider summarizing the material while citing sources as needed. (February 2022)

Ukraine

In an interview with the French newspaper Libération in April 2021, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Russian troops’ build-up on the north-east border with Ukraine, in Ukraine’s eastern war zone, and in Crimea, and the deterioration of the situation in eastern Ukraine were the gravest since the attack on Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait in November 2018.

In November 2021, Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said that Russia was preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February 2022. On 25 January 2022, defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said he saw no immediate threat of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine; he insisted that the threat had not significantly increased in eight years as “the Russian army ha not formed a strike group that would be able to carry out an invasion”. On 28 January 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the West not to create a “panic” in his country over a potential Russian invasion, adding that constant warnings of an “imminent” threat of invasion are putting the economy of Ukraine at risk. Zelenskyy said that “we do not see a bigger escalation” than in early 2021 when Russian military build-up started. On 2 February, the US White House said it would no longer describe a potential invasion as “imminent”. On 12 February 2022, Zelenskyy said of the White House’s warnings about the “imminent” threat of the Russian invasion that “the best friend of our enemies is panic in our country. And all this information only causes panic and does not help us.” Davyd Arakhamia, the head of the faction of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party in the Verkhovna Rada, said the constant warnings of a possible imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine “costs the country $2–3 billion every month.”

On 19 February 2022, speaking at the Munich Security Conference 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the “policy of appeasement” towards Russia and called the Western countries to help. He also said that Ukraine will not respond to the provocations by the Russian-led militants in Donbas, following the escalation and death of two Ukrainian soldiers. On 22 February 2022, Zelenskyy said he will consider the possibility of severing Ukraine’s diplomatic relations with Russia.

Russia

Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials over months repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine. In mid-November 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that it was “alarmist” to consider that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine.

On 27 November, Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, addressed allegations of plans to invade Ukraine by stating: “I need to reassure everyone. Nothing like this is going to happen”, and blaming “malicious propaganda by the US State Department” for the situation. On 28 November, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Putin, stated that “Russia has never hatched, is not hatching and will never hatch any plans to attack anyone … Russia is a peaceful country”. On 30 November, Putin stated that an expansion of NATO’s presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Russian cities or missile defense systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a “red line” issue for Russia.

On 19 January 2022, Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia does “not want and will not take any action of aggressive character. We will not attack, strike, invade, ‘whatever’ Ukraine.” In late January 2022, Nikolay Zhuravlev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, warned that Europe would not receive natural gas, petroleum and metals from Russia in the event that Russia was disconnected from the SWIFT international payment system, moreover such a move could not be feasible as it would require consent of all the countries participating in this system. Also in late January 2022, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said that the idea that Russia is “threatening Ukraine” was “absolutely ridiculous” and added: “We don’t want war. We don’t need that at all.” Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko condemned the deployment of NATO troops, warships, and fighter jets in Eastern Europe, saying that the military alliance was “demonising Russia” in order to “justify military activity on eastern flank”. Russia accused Ukraine of not implementing Minsk agreements reached in 2015 with the aim of establishing peace in Donbas.

On 7 February 2022, Putin said at a joint press conference with French president Emmanuel Macron: “A number of ideas, proposals … are possible as a basis for further steps. We will do everything to find compromises that suit everyone.” On 12 February 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the United States and its allies of waging a “propaganda campaign” about Russian invasion of Ukraine. He described Western “demands to remove Russian troops from Russian territory” as “regrettable”.

On 20 February, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, said that Russian forces “don’t threaten anyone … There is no invasion. There is no such plans”. On 21 February, President Putin signed a decree recognizing the two self-proclaimed separatist republics in Donbas as independent states.

International community

•  Albania and  Kosovo – Albanian Armed Forces Colonel Ardian Lulaj and Kosovar Head of Strategic Communication Colonel Sefer Isufi both stated in early December 2021 that their respective countries would be willing to deploy Albanian Armed Forces and Kosovo Security Forces in a putative future mission in Ukraine should the US decide to lead such an endeavor.
•  Argentina – Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández announced he opposes military force, believing that the crisis can be resolved “diplomatically” and expressed concern over Ukraine’s situation. Fernández said: “We express our worry for the development of the crisis in Ukraine and hope that both sides agree to a diplomatic solution in accordance to the principles of the UN Charter and international law, peaceful settlement of disputes, the rejection of the use of force and full respect for human rights.”
•  Armenia – Armenia called on Russia and Ukraine to solve all problems through diplomatic dialogue, negotiations, in accordance with the norms and principles of international law and the UN Charter.
•  Australia – On 24 January, the Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne offered assistance to Ukraine in combating Russian cyber attacks. She also called on Russia to “de-escalate” tensions and urged Australians living in Ukraine to evacuate. Similar sentiments were expressed by Finance Minister Simon Birmingham, who warned that Australia would raise financial sanctions against Russia in the event of hostilities.
•  Belarus – President of Belarus and Chairman of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, Alexander Lukashenko, on 21 January 2022 said the Union State “d not want war”, but all those who would threaten Russia and Belarus would find themselves in difficulty. He also stated that he would send “a whole contingent of the Belarusian army” to the border with Ukraine, because “Ukrainians allegedly began to draw troops there.” On 18 January 2022, the Digital Forensic Research Lab of the Atlantic Council expert group published a review of the arrival of Russian troops in the Republic of Belarus. In particular, it was about unloading Russian BM-27 Uragan multiple rocket launchers at the Rechytsa station in the Gomel Oblast north of Kyiv. On 17 February, when asked by a journalist whether Belarus was ready to offer military assistance to Russia should the latter decide to help the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, Lukashenko said, “We will provide any support to Russia, both military and, if necessary, economic support. We will share the last piece of bread with them and with people who suffer in Donbass. If it is Chernigov, we will help Chernigov residents. This is our unwavering position.”
•  Belgium – On 24 January 2022, Belgian Chief of Defence Michel Hofman said that Belgian forces were on standby in the Baltic, and prepared “to intervene within a certain amount of time, but today it is too early to say where and how” should the situation escalate.

  

  Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on 16 February 2022

•  Brazil – Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro arrived in Moscow for trade talks with Putin on 16 February 2022. Bolsonaro said: “We pray for peace and respect all who act in that way.”
•  Bulgaria – In early January, Bulgarian Minister of Defense Stefan Yanev responded to a parliamentary question on the deployment of additional military units in Bulgarian territory that Bulgaria opposes “escalation of military measures before all other diplomatic means are used” and that Bulgaria had as of yet “no national position” on the situation. On 21 January, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov condemned the Russian call for Bulgaria to leave NATO and for NATO troops to be withdrawn from Bulgaria and Romania, while President Rumen Radev called the statement “unacceptable”.
•  Canada – In January 2022, the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would provide Ukraine with a CDN$120 million loan, but will not transfer military equipment. On 14 February 2022, Trudeau announced that Canada would provide a $500 million loan and send $7.8 million in lethal equipment to Ukraine.

•  China – Chinese leader and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping supported Russia’s demand that Ukraine must never join NATO. On 14 January 2022, a spokesman of China’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that all countries should observe a traditional UN Olympic Truce resolution “from seven days before the start of the Olympic Games until seven days after the end of the Paralympic Games”. Under this timeframe, the proposed truce resolution would thus begin on 28 January 2022 and conclude on 20 March 2022.
•  Colombia – On 13 February 2022, Colombia’s President Ivan Duque instructed its Chancellery to contact all Colombians registered as residing in Ukraine to offer them repatriation assistance. Duque has rejected any attempt to use force to limit any country from deciding whether or not to join NATO. On 15 February 2022, Ivan Duque stated that Colombia will accompany the international community imposing sanctions in case of military aggression against Ukraine.
•  Croatia – On 19 January 2022, Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, speaking to the Sabor, said that the situation in the east of Ukraine was very worrying and the most tense since 2014 and told: “Croatia does not want the situation to escalate and it will react clearly and resolutely to prevent any instability”. On 25 January 2022, Croatia’s President Zoran Milanović, noting what he called NATO’s military build-up in the region and the Biden administration’s “inconsistent and dangerous conduct” in international security affairs and stressing his role as Croatia’s commander-in-chief, told the press, “We do not have any bearing on this and we will not have anything to do with this. I guarantee this. Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation. On the contrary, it will recall all troops, to the last Croatian soldier.” Milanović went on to say that an “arrangement to meet Russia’s security interests” ought to be found and that the acute crisis over Ukraine was “primarily determined by the dynamics of the US domestic politics”. On the same day, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković reacted to the president’s remarks by saying that on hearing those he thought it was being said “by some Russian official”; he also offered apologies to Ukraine and its government for Milanović’s accusation of Ukraine as “one of the most corrupt states” and reiterated that Croatia supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and no Croat troops were in Ukraine, while the president’s statement “had nothing whatsoever to do with the policy of the government of the Republic of Croatia”.
•  Cuba – Miguel Díaz-Canel expressed his support for Vladimir Putin during the crisis.
•  Czech Republic – On 26 January 2022, the Czech government decided to donate 4,006 152-mm artillery shells, for DANA howitzers, worth 36.6 million korunas, to Ukraine.
•  Denmark – On 13 January 2022, Denmark sent four F-16 fighter jets and a frigate with a crew of 160 people to the Baltic states to reinforce the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence and patrol the sea.
•  Estonia,  Latvia and  Lithuania – On 10 January 2022, Lithuania’s State Defense Council was convened to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian tensions. In response to the aggressive Russian military behaviour, the council decided to increase the number of troops and speed up military modernization plans. On 17 January, Latvia increased the military presence in the eastern part of the country. On 19 January, the Prime Minister of Estonia announced an extraordinary increase of defense spending by €380 million for the current fiscal year. The Baltic states also decided to accelerate their own acquisition of arms, including the joint rocket artillery system. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have also requested to increase the military deployments of NATO and American troops in the Baltics in order to deter the aggressive Russian behaviour.
•  Finland and  Sweden – Russian proposals that NATO would not accept new members received strong criticism by Sweden and Finland, who have been maintaining neutrality. In January 2022, both President of Finland Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin insisted on Finland’s right to decide what alliances it can join. Sweden expressed the same position that it is only up to the Swedish people to decide whether Sweden should join NATO. Russian threats have sparked the debate in both countries whether they should apply for NATO membership. On 13 January, Swedish Armed Forces announced that they were deploying troops to the strategic island of Gotland, as a response to unusual Russian military activity.

•  France – In April 2021, French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian, during a phone conversation with Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, noted that France was anxiously monitoring the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of Ukraine and the temporarily occupied territories. He assured of France’s continued support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The head of French diplomacy especially noted Ukraine’s prudent and wise actions in the current situation.
•  Germany – In April 2021, during a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that Russia reduce its military presence near Ukraine’s borders. In December 2021, German chancellor Olaf Scholz warned of “consequences” for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a Russian natural gas pipeline project operated by Gazprom, which delivers natural gas to Germany. In January 2022, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that “any further escalation would carry a high price for the Russian regime — economic, political and strategic”. Germany has been maintaining the policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons. German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Germany wants to “de-escalate” tensions and that supplying weapons would “not be helpful”. Ukraine also claimed that the German administration blocks the supply of arms through NATO. On 21 January 2022, it was reported that Germany blocked Estonia from exporting weapons of German-origin. Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks has called Germany’s relationship with Russia (and China) as “immoral and hypocritical”. On 26 January, Germany announced that it was going to ship 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, while reaffirming that it wasn’t going to supply any lethal weapon. The mayor of Kyiv and former world heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko described this offer as “a joke”.
•  Hungary – Hungarian Defence Minister Tibor Benkő declared that there is no need for NATO to deploy its troops in Hungary.
•  India – On 28 January 2022, the spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Arindam Bagchi stated that the situation in Ukraine and the high-level discussions between Russia and the US were being closely monitored. The statement called “for a peaceful resolution of the situation through sustained diplomatic efforts for long term peace and stability in the region and beyond”. On 29 January it was reported that the Indian Embassy in Ukraine had asked all Indians living there – mostly students in medical colleges – to register themselves so that it could provide information in a swift manner. Unlike other states, India did not evacuate its diplomats. The Indian Express highlighted the Indian Government’s difficult situation: on one hand, it was concerned about Russia’s “muscle-flexing”, but with almost 60 per cent of India’s military supplies being Russian-manufactured and with the ongoing military stand-off with China, it did not want to jeopardise its close military ties with Moscow; on the other hand, the US and Europe were also important strategic partners. Indian media outlets noted how hostility and sanctions against Russia would create problems for the country’s S-400 missile deal and likely “push Moscow in the direction of Beijing, hence strengthening the Chinese”. On 31 January, India abstained from the procedural vote at the United Nations Security Council ahead of a meeting to discuss the situation on the Ukraine border. Later, on 17 February, its Permanent Representative to the UN TS Tirumurti issued a statement supporting the Minsk Agreements and emphasising that “the issue can only be resolved through diplomatic dialogue”. The Indian Embassy in Ukraine, prompted by “high levels of tensions and uncertainties”, released two advisories on 15 and 20 February asking all its nationals, especially students, to temporarily leave Ukraine if their stay was not “essential”. A 24-hour helpline and an MEA control room was also set up. Family members of the Indian embassy staff were also to be sent home.
•  Indonesia – Indonesian president Joko Widodo issued statements to urge both Ukraine and Russia sides to de-escalate and avoided war at all costs. He also urged the countries to focus on ongoing COVID-19 pandemic rather intensifying the political rivalry. On 24 February, after the Russian invasion, President Joko Widodo tweeted an urge to stop war as it made the world in danger and humanity suffered. In separate statement, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasize the obligation of nations to respect international laws and UN Charter concerning territorial integrity, and condemned clear aggression of territory and sovereignty of a nation. The Indonesian Embassy in Kyiv assured safety of 138 Indonesian citizens in Ukrainian territory, including 11 at Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and prepared to call them to embassy if situation deteriorates.
•  Iran – Iran’s Foreign Ministry urged all parties to avoid escalation, while blaming NATO and the United States for provocation.
•  Israel – In late January 2022, Israel considered airlifting thousands of Jews out of Ukraine. On 11 February 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement urging Israeli citizens and diplomats to consider leaving the country. In February 2022, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel claimed Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid “reiterates rhetoric of Russian propaganda”, after Lapid said that Israeli officials “don’t see a violent confrontation soon” between Ukraine and Russia. The Israeli Foreign Ministry subsequently summoned the Ukrainian Ambassador for an official reprimand. On 13 February 2022, The Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs has stated that Israel’s official policy in the crisis is in support of Ukraine and the West. Israel refused to provide Ukraine with batteries for its Iron Dome’s missile-defense system over worries it would damage Israel–Russia relations. On 23 February, Israel issued an official statement in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and stated its readiness to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Following the Russian invasion, Israel provided an official condemnation of Russia’s action in the crisis and once again said it was ready to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

•  Italy – On 3 February, during his second inauguration speech, President of Italy Sergio Mattarella said he could not accept “the winds of confrontation once again blowing across a continent that had experienced the tragedies of the First and Second World Wars”. Prime Minister Mario Draghi underlined the importance of working towards a de-escalation of tensions, in light of the serious consequences that an aggravation of the crisis would have. On 11 February 2022, in Riga to meet his Latvian counterpart, Artis Pabriks, the Italian Defence Minister Lorenzo Guerini called for “a constructive dialogue” with Russia to ease tensions. On 13 February, the Italian government declared to be ready to deploy 1,000 soldiers on NATO’s Eastern border. Italy’s foreign affairs minister Luigi Di Maio travelled to Kyiv on 15 February 2022 to meet his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, while on 17 February, he had a bilateral meeting with the Russian foreign affairs minister Sergey Lavrov. In Moscow, Di Maio stated that “Italy has always been committed to the front row for a diplomatic solution. Russia and Ukraine can count on Italy to reach a diplomatic solution”. On 22 February, Draghi described Russia’s recognition of separatist republics as an “unacceptable territorial violation of the democratic sovereignty of Ukraine”, while on the following day he stated that Italy can not tolerate Russia’s prevarications and abuses.

•  Japan – Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida said he and Biden would work closely to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine and “keep close contact with other allies and partners and continue communicating on the point that any attack will be met with strong action.” In a tweet, Biden said it was “an honor to meet with Prime Minister Kishida to further strengthen the US-Japan Alliance — the cornerstone of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and around the world.” On 11 February 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs raised its travel warning for Ukraine to the highest level, advising Japanese citizens to leave Ukraine immediately and avoid travelling there under any circumstance. Kishida said at a press conference on February 25 that condemn Russia’s military attack as a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty ​and territorial integrity, and that Japan would impose additional sanctions targeting Russia.
•  Kazakhstan – Amid reports of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated that the Russian president personally assured him that the territorial integrity of Kazakhstan will not be questioned by Russia.
•  Kenya – The country’s representative to the UN, Martin Kimani, abstained from a vote about Russia’s conduct in Ukraine to hope for diplomacy. However, after Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics on 22 February 2022, Kimani condemned Russia and said it “breaches the territorial integrity” of Ukraine.
•  Malaysia – On 24 February, after the Russian invasion, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob expressed sorrow over the situation in Ukraine and expressed a hope for a peaceful solution between Ukraine and Russia leading to a conflict resolution. He confirmed 11 Malaysian citizen were still at Ukraine at that moment, promising shelter for them before they could safely evacuate. Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim later issued statement condemning the Russian agresssion.
•  Moldova – President of Moldova Maia Sandu on 21 January 2022 said that the Moldovan authorities were looking closely into the situation in Ukraine and that certain measures were being taken to prepare for potential outcomes of the crisis. She also demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, a breakaway territory legally and internationally considered as part of Moldova. Sandu also called for calm to the citizens of Moldova in the face of the developments in Ukraine and expressed her confidence in the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Later, Sandu met with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte and discussed with him the tensions in the Russia–Ukraine border. During the meeting, Rutte expressed his support for Moldova’s territorial integrity in regard to Transnistria.
•  New Zealand – On 12 February 2022, Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta stated that the New Zealand Government was concerned about the Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border and in Crimea, and supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. She urged New Zealand citizens in Ukraine to evacuate while commercial means were still available. She called on Russia to reduce tensions in accordance with international law. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern echoed Mahuta’s remarks, stating that New Zealand was considering applying targeted sanctions against Moscow.
•  Nicaragua – President Daniel Ortega expressed support for Russia’s recognition of the LPR and DPR, declaring that Russia was “defending itself” from NATO.
•  North Korea – On 28 February 2022, KCNA stated that “The root cause of the Ukraine crisis totally lies in the hegemonic policy of the U.S. and the West”.
•  Pakistan – Prime Minister Imran Khan announced he opposes military intervention, believing that the crisis can be resolved “peacefully”. It was announced on 22 February 2022 that Pakistan would make a high-level visit to Moscow.
•  Poland – Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that Ukraine can count on Polish support if Russia attacks, and called for a unified stance in Europe. On 21 January, the head of National Security Bureau Paweł Soloch stated that “supporting Ukraine is one of the key priorities of President Andrzej Duda’s policy”, while Duda and Zelenskyy discussed the possibility of further Polish and NATO defensive equipment deliveries.
•  Romania – The Minister of National Defence of Romania, Vasile Dîncu, said that, in the event of a new Russian–Ukrainian war, Romania would not be militarily involved and that it would remain in a strategic relationship with NATO and react together with the alliance in the face of such a hypothetical case. Furthermore, the President of Romania Klaus Iohannis urged the Romanian Armed Forces to be prepared for any aggression in the region, stating that the situation in Ukraine showed that measures of modernization and preparation of the Romanian military were necessary. Iohannis also called for a greater presence of NATO, the United States and other allies in the Black Sea region as a result of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. On 20 February, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs “strongly” recommended all Romanian citizens to avoid any travel to Ukraine and leave Ukraine “as soon as possible”.
•  Serbia – The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Serbia recommended that citizens of Serbia who stayed in Ukraine consider the possibility of temporarily leaving the territory of that country. The Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, assessed that a possible more serious aggravation of the relations between Ukraine and Russia would have serious economic implications for Serbia as well, and emphasized that official Belgrade hopes that dialogue will win.
•  Singapore – On 22 February 2022, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that “Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity ‘must be respected'” and that “All parties concerned should continue to pursue dialogue, including diplomatic means, towards a peaceful settlement of the dispute, in accordance with international law, and avoid action that will further raise tensions in the region. Earlier in February, Singapore advised its citizens based in Ukraine “to leave the country as soon as possible via commercial means while it is still possible to do so.”
•  South Korea – President of South Korea Moon Jae-in ordered government ministries to prepare for the safe evacuation of Koreans in Ukraine, and draw up measures to mitigate damages to Korean companies, citing the threat of a looming Russian invasion of Ukraine. Korea is eyeing the building crisis over Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine and stands ready to cooperate with its allies, Defense Ministry said. On 11 February 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has decided to ban its nationals from traveling to all regions of Ukraine and urged those staying there to evacuate immediately amid brewing tensions in the region.
•  South Africa – In a statement by Department of International Relations and Cooperation on 24 February, the South African Government “regretted that the situation has deteriorated despite calls for diplomacy to prevail”. The statement called for Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine immediately, while it called for peaceful resolution of the conflict.
•  Slovakia – The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia, Ivan Korčok, stated that the ceasefire and the announcement of an increase in Russia’s military power on the border with Ukraine are a matter of concern and called for de-escalation of tensions.
•  Spain – On 20 January 2022, Spain started deploying aircraft, ships and NATO forces to Bulgaria and the Black Sea. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares also stated that Spain wanted “dialogue, but if does not bear fruit, of course, Spain will stand with its European partners and its NATO allies united in deterrence”.
•   Switzerland – On 21 January 2022, Switzerland continued to facilitate direct negotiations between Russia and the United States to avert an armed confrontation in Eastern Europe. Swiss President Ignazio Cassis explained during a press conference in Geneva “Switzerland is concerned over growing tensions. We are totally convinced that dialogue is the only way to reinforce security in Europe”. On 27 February 2022, the Swiss Federal Council announced adherence to all sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia. Exempt from these sanctions are payments for energy raw materials. Furthermore, Switzerland will not allow direct shipments of arms to the war zone and only support humanitarian missions during the crisis.
•  Syria – On 22 February 2022, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad announced its country’s support to the Russian recognition of the republics’ independence.
•  Turkey – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs have stated that Russian actions are “unacceptable” and strongly condemned Russia over its “grave violation of international law”, while reiterating “support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Furthermore, a commercial Turkish-owned vessel was hit by a Russian bomb off the coast of Odessa, for which Turkish authorities stated there were no casualties and the ship safely arrived in the territorial waters of Romania, a NATO ally. On 27 February, Turkey referred to the invasion as a “war,” rhetorically bringing the conflict under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits and permitting Turkey to prohibit Russian as well as other foreign warships in the Bosporus and Dardanelles.
•  United Arab Emirates – The United Arab Emirates largely remained silent on the issue. One of the UAE’s major allies, US called for the Emirates to vote for the UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and demanding Moscow to withdraw its troops. The Arab nation abstained from voting, taking no side at all, stating that it would “only lead to more violence”. The UAE maintained strong relations with both Russia and the US. The Emirati decision was perceived as an independent foreign policy approach, after it depended on the US for such decisions for a long time. 
•  United Kingdom – Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on 22 January 2022 wrote on Twitter that the UK would “not tolerate Kremlin plot to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine.” The following day, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said that there was “a very significant risk Russia w invade Ukraine” and threatened “very significant economic consequences” if Russia took that step. On 7 February 2022, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain would not “flinch” as he prepared to deploy Royal Marines, RAF aircraft, and Royal Navy warships to eastern Europe. British citizens were being told by the Foreign Office to evacuate while commercial means were still available. On 14 February 2022, Johnson warned an invasion of Ukraine could take place within 48 hours. Health Secretary Sajid Javid described the movement of Russian troops across the border as an “invasion of Ukraine”.

•  United States – On 2 April 2021, President Biden had his first telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On 13 April, Biden had a telephone call with Russian President Putin; Biden “emphasized the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”; Biden also voiced US concern “over the sudden Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea and on Ukraine’s borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions.” In mid-April 2021, the US Department of the Treasury, along with the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada, sanctioned eight individuals and entities “associated with Russia’s ongoing occupation and repression in Crimea.” On 19 January 2022, President Biden said that he believed Russia would invade Ukraine. Biden said a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be “the most consequential thing that’s happened in the world in terms of war and peace” since World War II. On 22 January 2022, the US Embassy in Kyiv requested the evacuation of non-essential personnel along with their families by the United States Department of State. The State Department issued an advisory not to travel to Ukraine or Russia, citing ongoing tension along the Russia–Ukraine border and COVID-19. On 10 February 2022, Joe Biden urged all American citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately and ruled out the option of sending US troops to rescue Americans in the country, the State Department issuing an advisory that the US “will not be able to evacuate US citizens in the event of Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine”. On 11 February 2022, Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan publicly warned about the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine prior to the end the 2022 Winter Olympics. On 12 February 2022, senior official of the Biden administration told reporters “We are basing this assessment on what we’re seeing on the ground with our own eyes, which is the continued Russian buildup on the border with Ukraine, and no meaningful evidence of de-escalation.” On 14 February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the relocation of the US Ukraine embassy from the capital Kyiv to Lviv, citing a “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces”.
•  Uruguay – On 23 February 2022, Uruguay’s Ministry of Foreign Relations issued a statement condemning the use of force and urging all parties involved to take the necessary measures to reduce tensions and achieve a political agreement. The Uruguayan government expressed “concern” about the situation with the recognition of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as sovereign states by Russia and the displacement of military troops, in violation of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations. In addition, it expressed that the country considers that the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2202 “provides the way for the application of the Minsk agreements, leading to a peaceful and lasting solution to the conflict”, and that the solution should “respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity” of Ukraine.
•   Vatican City – Pope Francis called for peace several times during Sunday’s Angelus and weekly General Audiences, describing war as “madness”. In addition, he called 26 January to be a day of prayer for peace.
•  Venezuela – Nicolás Maduro expressed his full support for Vladimir Putin during a Russian diplomatic delegation visit in the Miraflores presidential palace, ratifying the way for military cooperation. Maduro further expressed “all his support” after Putin’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk and the Russian mobilization into the territories. Juan Guaidó, on the other hand, described the action as an “illegal recognition” and “unilateral action of intervention”, and rejected the deployment of troops in the territories.
•  Vietnam – Vietnam on 25 February 2022 said it is seriously concerned with the armed conflict situation in Ukraine and called for restraint on the part of all sides. A spokesperson for the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 25 February 2022 urged “all relevant parties to exercise restraint, abide by the United Nations Charter and basic principles of international law, refrain from using force, protect the people, continue with dialogue to seek a peaceful resolution, contributing to the maintenance of peace, security, stability, and cooperation in the region and the world.” The spokesperson said Vietnam is paying special attention to the Vietnamese community in Ukraine, asking for the protection of life, safety, assets, legitimate rights and interests of Vietnamese citizens and businesses here.

Entities with limited recognition

•  Republic of Abkhazia – On 22 February 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a statement welcoming the recognition of independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
•  Republic of Artsakh – On 22 February 2022, the President of the breakaway state Arayik Harutyunyan welcomed the decision of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to “recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.” He stated that “the right of nations to self-determination and building one’s own state is inalienable for every people and is a fundamental principle of the international law.”
•  Taiwan – On 28 January 2022, President Tsai Ing-Wen instructed the National Security Council to establish a task force monitoring events in Ukraine. She compared Russia’s military buildup around Ukrainian territories to China’s repeated invasion of Taiwan’s ADIZ, stating that “Taiwan has faced military threats and intimidation from China for a long time. Therefore, we empathize with Ukraine’s situation, and we also support the efforts of all parties to maintain regional security,” and pleading for peaceful dialogue.

  

  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 2 February 2022

In February 2022, following warnings from Western nations that a Russian invasion could be near, more than a dozen countries have encouraged their nationals to leave Ukraine. The United States, the United Kingdom, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Germany are among the countries that have advised their citizens to leave.

Intergovernmental agencies

•  European Union – On 24 January 2022, due to the conflict, the European Commission proposed €1.2 billion financial aid for Ukraine in grants and loans. The European Union is negotiating possible liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies with the United States, Qatar and Azerbaijan in case Russia stops gas exports to Europe.
•  NATO – NATO had repeatedly called upon Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and condemned Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and support of separatists in eastern Donbas, calling for a resolution of the Donbas conflict via the Minsk agreements. In December 2021, as Russia continued a military buildup in and around Ukraine, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly met with Ukrainian leaders to reaffirm the alliance’s support for Ukraine, to call upon NATO members to enhance delivery of defensive weapon systems to Ukraine, and to counter Russian disinformation. NATO and the US have re-affirmed NATO’s “open door” policy, maintaining that countries should freely choose whether to join NATO or not. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on 13 January 2022 said: “No one else has the right to try to veto or interfere in that process. And this is about fundamental principles for European security. It’s about the right for every nation to choose their own path.” In an interview, Stoltenberg re-affirmed NATO’s “dual track” approach to Russia, saying, “We are ready to engage in dialogue with Russia, but we will never compromise on core principles for European security….Russia has a choice to either engage in dialogue with NATO and Western allies or choose confrontation. We need to be clear-eyed about the prospect that Russia will — once again — use military force against Ukraine. We will provide support to Ukraine to enable them to strengthen their ability to defend themselves.” On 24 January 2022, Jens Stoltenberg, noting a number of NATO countries′ announcements regarding ongoing or upcoming deployments, said, “I welcome Allies contributing additional forces to NATO. NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the Alliance.” (One of the Russian government’s security demands forwarded to the US and NATO in December 2021 was that NATO stop expanding eastwards, specifically never admit Georgia as well as Ukraine.)
•  UN  – On 21 February 2022, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres qualified the decision of the Russian Federation “related to the status of certain regions of Ukraine” to be “a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”

• International Energy Agency – IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that conflict between Russia and Ukraine “would major implications” on the natural gas prices, “if not leading to turmoil”.

Civil society

• Anonymous (hacker group) – The decentralized hacking group had dedicated some of their defacements of websites such as those of belonging to the United Nations and the Polar Research Institute of China, to promote proposals in order to defuse the crisis, including by calling for the creation of a “neutral grouping” of countries “wedged between NATO and Russia” that would include Ukraine, Finland, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Anonymous argued that the so-called “neutral security belt” could serve as an alliance similar to NATO or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that acts as a cordon sanitaire between NATO and CSTO countries in order to “assuage Russia’s fears without NATO losing its face”. Furthermore, they embedded Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft senior fellow Anatol Lieven’s paper “Ending the Threat of War in Ukraine” at the defacement page and called for a referendum on whether to presumably follow the existing Minsk Protocol or hand over the separatist-controlled territories to a UN peacekeeping administration. Later, a second referendum in the separatist regions would then ask voters to choose to reunite with Ukraine, gain independence, or join Russia.
•  Belarusian opposition – On 24 January, Belarusian hacktivists stated that they had disrupted Belarusian Railway “servers, databases and workstations” using ransomware, while leaving automation and security systems in place. They promised to decrypt the systems provided that 50 political prisoners were released and that Russian soldiers were prevented from entering Belarus. Dzmitry Bandarenka, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign, told Charter 97 on 26 January 2022, that he believed that in the event of Russian aggression, tens of thousands of Belarusians would fight against the Russian Federation on Ukraine’s side and defend their country’s independence.
• Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople – Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew on 13 January 2022 called for peace in Ukraine. The Ecumenical Patriarch said: “Peace is a matter of choice and must be shared by all the forces engaged in this extremely complex and sensitive geopolitical context.”
• Metropolis of Bessarabia – Representants of the Romanian Orthodox Metropolis of Bessarabia in Moldova announced that this institution was closely looking at the situation at the borders of Ukraine. The metropolis also published a statement asking for peace in the region and saying that it was praying for this to be the case.
• Russian intellectuals – On 30 January 2022, 90 Russian intellectuals, including Lev Ponomaryov and Svetlana Gannushkina, issued a public statement on Echo of Moscow urging the Russian government to avoid starting an “immoral, irresponsible, and criminal” war between Russia and Ukraine. As of 7 February 2022, the statement had been signed by 5,000 Russian intellectuals. On 31 January, retired Colonel General Leonid Ivashov published a statement on behalf of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly that opposed the Russian threat to attack Ukraine, describing it as a “criminal policy of provoking a war” and calling for Putin to resign. On 20 February, Ponomaryov and seven others, including Yuri Samodurov, held solitary street protests in Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow against the Russian threat to attack Ukraine. The eight protestors were arrested.
• Ukrainian citizens – On 5 February 2022, from two to five thousand people in Kharkiv protested against the Russian threat to invade Ukraine. On 12 February, two thousand people protested in Kyiv to show unity in opposition to the threat of a further Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Orthodox Church of Ukraine – Metropolitan of Kyiv and All Ukraine Epiphanius said “We have all heard and know about the challenges facing Ukraine in the face of the threat from Russia. This threat should not be underestimated, and therefore we, as a nation, must be ready to repel the enemy, if he still dares, violating the laws of God and man, to increase crimes” by engaging in “open war.” The Orthodox Church of Ukraine also published a prayer guide that includes prayers for “when the fatherland is in danger” and for “liberation from the invasion of foreigners.”
• Catholic Church of Ukraine – Major Archbishop of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church Sviatoslav Shevchuk has urged people in Ukraine to remain united in “the face of this great threat … on our borders.” The Latin Catholic bishops’ conference of Ukraine has called for 16 February to be a “day of intense prayer and fasting.”
• International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement – The ICRC deployed one of its largest contingencies to Ukraine, where the organization is active since 2014, working closely with the Ukrainian Red Cross Society. The ICRC was active primarily in the disputed regions of the Donbas and Donetsk, assisting persons injured by armed confrontations when open hostilities between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces broke out on 24 February 2022. Thereafter the fighting moved to more populated areas in the Eastern Ukraine. The head of the ICRC delegation in Kyiv warned on 26 February 2022 that neighborhoods of major cities are becoming the frontline with significant consequences for their populations, including children, the sick and elderly. The ICRC urgently called on all parties to the conflict not to forget their obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure the protection of the civilian population and infrastructure and respect the dignity of refugees and prisoners of war.
• Elon Musk announced 26 February 2022 that he had activated Starlink internet service in Ukraine as the country suffered power outages and gaps in internet service due to Russia’s invasion. Equipment needed to use Starlink arrived in Kiev on 1 March 2022.

Impact on migration

Charity representatives based in Kyiv reported movements of Ukrainian population away from the front lines. On 24 February, Moldova reported that four thousand Ukrainian refugees entered Moldova, where the authorities have set up tents. Moldova, Slovakia, and Poland pledged to keep their borders open to crossing Ukrainian refugees. Romania has also received Ukrainian refugees within its territory.

Ana Revenco, the Interior Minister of Moldova, said on 25 February that over 15,800 Ukrainian citizens had crossed the border into Moldova. The Interior Ministry of Romania stated that around 10,000 Ukrainians had crossed into the country since the start of the invasion, but only 11 of them had applied for refugee status in the country. On 26 February, Polish minister Paweł Szefernaker said that approximately 100,000 people had crossed into Poland since the start of the invasion.

As of 26 February 2022 Poland was admitting refugee children from Ukraine without passports, but with birth cerificates.

By February 28, the border with Poland was crossed by 281,000. people, in Hungary there were 84.5 thousand, 36.4 thousand. in Moldova, 32.5 thousand in Romania and 30 thousand. in Slovakia. Refugees in Moldova and Romania are applying for refugee status to a small extent – most are planning to go to the Czech Republic and Poland. In total, more than half a million people had left Ukraine by 28 February.

Since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis, both the US and the UK have admitted comparatively few refugees as continental Europe had to deal with the consequences from a mass exodus in the war zone. Currently, only family members of Ukrainians already living in the UK can be admitted as refugees to Great Britain. Likewise, the US has only admitted 4,264 refugees in 2019 from the Ukraine as most of them are barred from entry due to lengthy immigration application protocols.