Frozen conflict

In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

The term has been commonly used for post-Soviet conflicts, but it has also often been applied to other perennial territorial disputes. The de facto situation that emerges may match the de jure position asserted by one party to the conflict; for example, Russia claims and has effectively controlled Crimea following the 2014 Crimean crisis, despite Ukraine’s continuing claim to the region. Alternatively, the de facto situation may not match either side’s official claim. The division of Korea is an example of the latter situation: both the South Korea and the North Korea officially assert claims to the entire peninsula; however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries’ areas of control.

Frozen conflicts sometimes result in partially recognized states. For example, the Republic of South Ossetia, a product of the frozen Georgian–Ossetian conflict, is recognized by eight other states, including five UN members; the other three of these entities are partially recognized states themselves.

Examples

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In post-Soviet territories

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, a number of conflicts arose in areas of some of the post-Soviet states, usually where the new international borders did not match the ethnic affiliations of local populations. These conflicts have largely remained “frozen”, with disputed areas under the de facto control of entities other than the countries to which they are internationally recognized as belonging, and which still consider those areas to be part of their territory. Most of the separatist states in the region are Russian state-backed. These interventions have been interpreted as a Kremlin strategy to destabilize other post-Soviet states and extend Russia’s sphere of influence.

Name	Capital	Population	Area (km2)	Declaration of independence	Recognition by UN members	Major ethnic groups	De jure part of
Transnistria	Tiraspol	475,665	4,400	2 September 1990	none	Moldovans (32.1%), Russians (30.4%), Ukrainians (28.8%)	Moldova
Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)	Stepanakert	150,932	3,170	2 September 1991	none	Armenians (99%)	Azerbaijan
Abkhazia	Sukhumi	242,862	8,660	25 August 1990	5	Abkhaz (50.5%), Georgians (19%), Armenians (17%)	Georgia
South Ossetia	Tskhinvali	51,547	3,900	28 November 1991	5	Ossetians (89.9%), Georgians (7.4%).
Republic of Crimea	Simferopol	1,891,465	26,100	17 March 2014	Considered part of Russia by North Korea, Cuba, Syria, and 7 others	Russians (65.2%), Ukrainians (16.0%), Crimean Tatars (12.6%)	Ukraine
Sevastopol
Donetsk People’s Republic	Donetsk	2,302,444	7,853	12 May 2014	none	Ukrainians (56.9%), Russians (38.2%)
Luhansk People’s Republic	Luhansk	1,433,280	8,377	12 May 2014	none	Ukrainians (58.0%), Russians (39.1%)

Transnistria

Since the ceasefire which ended the Transnistria War (1990–1992), the Russian-influenced breakaway republic of Transnistria has controlled the easternmost strip of the territory of Moldova. The republic is internationally unrecognized, and Moldova continues to claim the territory.

Nagorno-Karabakh

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but most of the region is governed by a de facto independent state with an Armenian ethnic majority established on the basis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Since 1988, the Karabakh movement strove for the transfer of the region to Armenia. In 1991 Nagorno-Karabach declared its independence from Azerbaijan. During the subsequent First Nagorno-Karabakh War until 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic could not only defend its existence, but also significantly enlarge its territory, and crucially establish a land border with Armenia, by annexing adjacent Azeri territories. After 1994, the conflict remained practically frozen in this situation; in 2017 Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was renamed as Republic of Artsakh. In 2020, the conflict escalated again however; Azerbaijan regained all lost territories beyond the borders of the original Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. Also the land connection between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia was lost again.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia

The Abkhaz–Georgian conflict and Georgian–Ossetian conflict have led to the creation of two largely unrecognized states within the internationally recognized territory of Georgia. The 1991–92 South Ossetia War and the 1992-93 War in Abkhazia, followed by the Russo-Georgian War of August 2008, have left the Russian-backed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in de facto control of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions in north and northwest Georgia.

Crimea

In 2014, Crimea was occupied by the Russian troops without insignia while Ukraine was still recovering from large scale violence in the capital, and soon afterwards was admitted into the Russian Federation. This is widely regarded as an annexation of the peninsula by Russia, and is considered likely to result in another post-Soviet frozen conflict.

Donetsk and Luhansk

From the beginning of March 2014, in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Euromaidan movement, protests by Russia-backed anti-government separatist groups took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the Donbas. These demonstrations, which followed the February–March 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and which were part of a wider group of concurrent protests across southern and eastern Ukraine, escalated into an armed conflict between the separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR respectively), and the Ukrainian government. While the initial protests were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government, Russia took advantage of them to launch a co-ordinated political and military campaign against Ukraine. Russian citizens led the separatist movement in Donetsk from April until August 2014, and were supported by volunteers and materiel from Russia.

While there are similarities between Transnistria, Abkhazia and the current War in Donbas, where the unrecognized Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic have taken de facto control of areas in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, the conflict in Donbas is not a frozen conflict yet as ceasefire violations are keeping the fighting at a low tempo. However, some experts predict a frozen future for this conflict as well.

In Asia

Kashmir

India and Pakistan have fought at least three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir, in 1947, 1965, and 1999. India claims the entire area of the former princely state of Jammu & Kashmir as per the Instrument of Accession (Jammu and Kashmir) signed aftermath of partition, of which India administers approximately 43%. Pakistan also claims it since the partition, which controls approximately 37% of the region and encourages proxy-war tactics in Kashmir. The remaining territory is controlled by the People’s Republic of China, which few areas occupied during the Sino-Indian War and few parts were gifted by Pakistan to China.

Mainland China and Taiwan

The conflict between mainland China and Taiwan has been frozen since 1949. No armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed and debate continues as to whether the civil war has legally ended. Officially, both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) based in Beijing and the Republic of China (ROC) based in Taipei consider themselves to be the sole legitimate government of the entirety of China. While the latter especially is not recognized by a majority of countries and states internationally, it remains a de facto independent administration in Taiwan and several other islands, and the PRC’s de facto administration is in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau.

Korea

The Korean conflict was frozen from 1953, when a ceasefire ended the Korean War; until 27 April 2018, when the two countries agreed to end the war formally. Both North Korea and South Korea governments claim the entire Korean peninsula, while de facto control is divided along the military demarcation line in the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

Israel, Palestine, and the Golan Heights

The Arab–Israeli conflict is a perennial conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbours, including the Palestinian National Authority. Israel refuses to recognize Palestinian statehood, while some Arab countries and groups refuse to recognize Israel. Israel has de facto control of East Jerusalem and claims it as its integral territory, although it is not internationally recognized as such. Similarly most of the Golan Heights are currently under de facto Israeli control and civil administration, whereas most of the international community rejects that claim. The United States formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019 through a proclamation by President Donald Trump.

In Europe and Africa

Cyprus

The Cyprus dispute has been frozen since 1974. The northern part of Cyprus is under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but this is not recognized internationally except by Turkey.

Kosovo

The dispute over the status of Kosovo remains frozen since the end of the Kosovo War, fought in 1998–1999 between Yugoslav forces (the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) and the ethnically Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army. The Kosovo region has been administered independently by the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo since the war. Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, but it is not recognized by all countries worldwide, as Serbia still considers Kosovo part of its territory.

Western Sahara

The Western Sahara conflict has been largely frozen since a ceasefire in 1991, although various disturbances such as the Independence Intifada have broken out since then. Control of the territory of Western Sahara remains divided between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front.

Gibraltar

Spain’s dispute with Britain over Gibraltar has been a frozen conflict for most of the past three centuries.

Northern Ireland

European Parliament’s Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt said Northern Ireland was stuck in a “frozen conflict”.